Our Views on the Markets and the Economy
Articles, investment updates and economic analysis
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A lockdown is necessary to limit the spread of the virus and save lives, but it is not feasible or practical to prolong it for too long. A long lockdown will wipe out large swathes of the economy. There will be a negative impact both financially and mentally on too many people.
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Acting under duress is not ideal at the best of times but under severe pressure the regular psychological effects that impact our behaviour are even more damaging. These emotional distortions affect many aspects of our lives, including how we treat our investments.
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We’d like to share some of what we have read recently with you – to help keep you informed on subjects which affect all of our lives and to occasionally give you a viewpoint you may not have considered.
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Last week saw a headline grabbing rally in equity markets. Despite this, there is still considerable near-term uncertainty about the outlook for markets. This is highlighted by the continued low level of bond yields, reflecting the global recession that we are probably already in and policy rates that have fallen to close to zero, or below, across most western economies.
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ISAs have launched (and been the saviour) of many long-term savings goals. Yet they should not be just considered as an individual pursuit – when a whole family makes the most of their ISA allowances every year, the effect can be powerful.
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The UK is already entering a deep recession. The Chancellor has made a good start with a policy he has described as timely, targeted and temporary. This policy is, however, still too timid and needs to be titanic in scale. So far so good, but far more needs to be done.
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When markets are this volatile it is troubling, and when events are out of your control it is frustrating. Yet while you have no say in market performance, inflation or how long you may live, the factors you can influence when you invest could make a meaningful difference over the long term.
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How should we view the economic outlook? The key question, as I see it, for the markets, is whether we will have a slump, recession, or a recovery. Is it an L-shaped, U-shaped or V-shaped economic outlook?
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When world markets display worrying volatility, investors need to feel reassured that their long-term goals are on track. At Netwealth, we give clients the tools to see how short-term performance can be viewed in context with previous events to allow them to make informed decisions about their investments – which for most will result in taking no action at all.
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The economy needs a large and immediate fiscal boost. The latest collapse in bond yields reinforces the attraction of using the maximum possible fiscal levers to stimulate the economy.
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