Our Views on the Markets and the Economy

Bank of England Raises Rates

Yesterday, for the first time in more than a decade, the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee voted by a majority of 7-2 to raise UK interest rates by a quarter point, from 0.25% to 0.5%. It was a move that has been well signalled by the Bank in recent weeks and thus it was widely expected by the market.

Continue reading

Noise is the enemy of information – a premise that is especially true for investing. Cutting through the noise and listening to what matters is critical for those who want to invest with clarity and not be distracted by sounds which are irrelevant to their objective.

Continue reading

Rising longevity and low interest rates are stirring up a perfect storm for investors – but a few smart decisions could generate a sustainable income for an extra 10 years or more in later life.

Continue reading

Update on the UK

For much of the last nine years since the global financial crisis, economies in the west have witnessed the three L’s of low growth, low inflation and low interest rates. The UK has, for much of this time shared in this, even though along with the US, growth has been significantly higher than in the euro area or Japan.

Continue reading

The US Federal Reserve has been on a path of tightening monetary policy since December 2015. We think 2018 will signify tightening of monetary policy by developed market central banks on a more synchronised basis. The Fed will continue to hike rates and reduce the size of their balance sheet and the European Central Bank (ECB) will reverse their printing of money by tapering their Asset Purchase Programme. Meanwhile the Bank of England (BoE) is likely to raise policy rates, possibly as soon as this November, reversing the emergency cut implemented following last year‘s EU referendum and they could tighten further yet gradually through 2018.

Continue reading

President Xi Pursues the China Dream

Following the opening of the 19th National People's Congress in Beijing, please find enclosed a personal view on President Xi's main speech by our chief economic strategist Gerard Lyons. Our investment committee keeps fully abreast of global affairs, both in terms of the opportunities they offer and the wider implications. The Chinese NPC is a political gathering and in that respect, does not directly impact investment markets but, nonetheless, it is important for the whole world to take note of the key issues being discussed and outlined.

Continue reading

A Positive Message from Washington

Increased optimism about the world economy and the likelihood of global monetary policy tightening were the main messages from last week’s gathering of the financial industry in Washington.

Continue reading

There are two key domestic issues this week for UK financial markets. One is the latest inflation news and the implications for interest rates. The second is the ongoing Brexit discussions and what might the latest phase imply for settling. Let's focus here on the inflation news.

Continue reading

How the UK can Plug the Productivity Gap

Addressing the UK’s low productivity is more important than ever and whilst there is no magical solution to the problem, we can make improvements, says Gerard Lyons.

Continue reading

The German elections could be a game changer. It is still too early to tell what impact they will have on future German and European policy, but the immediate reception they are receiving in Germany suggests it could yet prove profound.

Continue reading