Our Views on the Markets and the Economy

The Latest Economic Update from the IMF

Overnight the International Monetary Fund (IMF) provided an update of their global economic outlook. Although the IMF is not a great forecaster, we take it seriously because it is an indicator of where benchmark thinking is on global growth.

Continue reading

Economic and Political Update (2)

The unnecessary and unexpected general election has led to a political risk premium now being factored into the outlook for the UK economy and financial assets. Investors and savers frequently ask what are our views on the political outlook.

Continue reading

Economic and Political Update (1)

The unnecessary and unexpected general election has led to a political risk premium now being factored into the outlook for the UK economy and financial assets. Investors and savers frequently ask what are our views on the political outlook.

Continue reading

How geopolitics trumps economics

Earlier this week I attended the "Athens Seminar", an economic and political round table discussion that has been hosted annually since 1979 and that I have attended, on and off, over the last decade. This invitation only event brings together experts, policy makers and politicians from across the globe. I thought it would be of interest to share some of the main takeaways, as they help understand the current environment.

Continue reading

The Financial Conduct Authority has just finished their investigation into the Asset Management Industry and their findings are staggering (though not a surprise). Remarkably, more than 20 million people in Britain are investors in either pensions or stock & shares ISAs but there has been very little coverage from the press on this matter.

Continue reading

We need a new approach to wealth management. With the FCA turning its attention to the sector, pressure is mounting on the traditional culture of high fees and indifferent service.

Continue reading

This week we thought it would be useful for our readers to have a round-up of some broader global themes, all of which in this globalised and connected world economy can have an impact, direct or otherwise, on financial markets and hence on future returns. It will give you an insight also into some of the many topics we keep a focus on.

Continue reading

The decision by the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to leave monetary policy and interest rates unchanged was not a surprise. But the vote underpinning the decision was. The vote was 5-3 in favour of unchanged policy, with three members of the committee opting for higher rates. The MPC has nine members but there is currently one vacancy. What does this tell us about policy?

Continue reading

The UK Economy: A Post-Election Update

After the shock of the general election, resulting in a hung Parliament and minority Conservative Government, what are the implications for the economy and investors? In terms of the political outlook, three scenarios strike me as likely. First, and most likely, the Conservatives remain in power, with the support of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) - thus avoiding an early election. This would require a much watered-down legislative agenda. The country does not want another election, but the other scenarios would include this possibility. The implications for Brexit are covered below.

Continue reading

Yesterday’s election has resulted in a hung Parliament. This was not an expected outcome, so the coming days are likely to see further noise around how a new Government can be formed in the UK. Given the focus of the Conservative campaign on Theresa May personally, the Prime Minister’s future is likely to be among the questions debated within the Conservative party and the media.

Continue reading