Our Views on the Markets and the Economy

Keeping On Top of Risk

What are the risks facing the economic outlook and the financial markets? The tenth anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers has prompted much comment on whether another global financial crisis might be imminent.

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China: Politics Driving Markets

We enter autumn with many political and policy issues overhanging financial markets. The main underlying global story is continued strong growth in the US and the prospect of further policy tightening by the US Fed. Outside of the US, the growth picture varies, as does the immediate outlook for monetary policy.

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To ensure that our service continues to deliver what clients want, Netwealth recently conducted a survey in conjunction with YouGov to find out what are the key issues that matter to investors. Here is an overview of our findings.

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How Overconfidence Can Cost Us Dearly

Being confident often allows us to function to the best of our abilities, unhindered by doubt. Yet simply firing that emotion up a notch can have disastrous consequences for our money and our lives. Overconfidence can lead us into all sorts of trouble.

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Looking Beyond Turkey: The Wider Risks

There are a number of key geopolitical issues also clouding the outlook for financial markets. How they will play out is hard to predict exactly and likely requires scenario planning that anticipates different actions by the key countries involved.

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Turkey is suffering a currency crisis, which may progress into an economic crisis. Whether it leads to a political crisis remains to be seen. The extent of the problems mean that Turkey’s predicament has already generated headlines here in the UK, but what are the reasons and consequences?

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If you think that interest rates could potentially rise two or three times in the next two to three years, you may consider moving your funds – or a chunk of your money – into a savings account. But it is best not to act rashly.

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Monetary Policy Normalisation

Monetary policy normalisation: this is the key issue that will influence heavily the investment outlook. In the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis, central banks played a dominant role as they pumped in money and cut interest rates.

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What is the most appropriate inflation measure to use in gauging returns on investments and savings? That is the issue we address here. There are many different benchmarks that investors and savers can use, but a common one is to earn a return in excess of inflation.

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Economic Update

Financial markets are entering what could be a potentially tricky time. In addition to the continuous flow of new economic data and company results across the globe, the coming weeks are likely to see potentially critical moments in a host of issues. Let’s start here in the UK.

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