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Last Thursday we hosted a webinar that focused on the policy outlook in the UK and on the implications for people’s finances. You can watch the recording here. Our head of advice, Tom Kimche, looked into the latter, while I focused on the overall outlook and implications. There were three parts to my talk: the latest economic data; the King’s Speech and what it might mean for economic policy; and fiscal policy.
Financial markets are still digesting the new policy measures of the Labour Government. Next week on the 18th of July – the day after the State Opening of Parliament, which includes the King’s Speech that outlines the government’s plan for this session of parliament – we will host a webinar focusing on the economic and financial implications of government policy.
What lies ahead after the election? On 20th June we hosted a webinar to address this issue. Here is a summary of my opening comments on the economic and financial outlook.
This column by Gerard Lyons appeared in the Financial Times on Wednesday, 29th May, 2024.
What are the key macroeconomic and policy issues that savers and investors should focus on when looking at financial markets? Let me highlight the key current issues and then some of the longer-term themes that are likely to come to the fore.
Inflation is easing and UK interest rates are set to fall. That is the message from yesterday’s Bank of England quarterly Monetary Policy Report (MPR) and press conference. The conference followed the outcome of the latest Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting at which the vote was 7-2 to leave policy rates on hold at 5.25%. Two members, Ramsden and Dhingra, voted to cut immediately.
What lies ahead in May? Let me highlight three areas. First, in recent weeks the weakness of the yen has become a central focus for financial markets. The yen at one stage weakened through ¥:$ 160 (160 yen to the US dollar), prompting intervention by the Bank of Japan (BOJ). Last Monday it is conjectured that BOJ intervention totalled ¥5.5 trillion of purchases.
Inflation may be decelerating in the UK but the level of prices is far higher than only three years ago. This helps explain why the cost-of-living crisis is still an issue for so many people. In March, the annual rate of inflation decelerated to 3.2% from 3.4% in February. Yet consumer prices were 19.5% higher than in July 2021, which was the last month on which the 2% inflation target was hit.
Last June I wrote a column in the Financial Times saying that interest rates should – and would – stay higher for longer in western economies. At that time it was not the accepted norm. It is now.
What will happen in April? Let’s first remind ourselves of some of the notable events over the last month: the UK Budget, which reflected the weakness of the economy and this in turn limited the Chancellor’s room for policy manoeuvre; China’s annual Two Sessions in which an achievable growth target of 5% was outlined for this year; the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) decision to shift away from its negative interest rate policy (in place since 2016) and raise policy rates above zero; and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) deciding to cut policy rates and becoming the first major western economy to embark upon monetary easing.
Team Contributors
Gerard Lyons
Charlotte Ransom
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In The Press
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