Our Views on the Markets and the Economy

The immediate outlook for financial markets looks very constructive. Although we are still in a global health crisis, the vaccination programmes point to a strong economic rebound in the US and UK, following in the footsteps of the recovery that is well underway in China.



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To help you better understand the potential for the world’s economy, I outline a dozen key economic and policy factors to focus on. Consensus thinking has moved towards our view of a strong economic recovery in the UK and globally.



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Rebound, reflation and inflation are three of the key issues impacting the immediate outlook for financial markets.



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Analysis of the Budget

The latest Budget is naturally focused on recovering from the pandemic, with the Chancellor Rishi Sunak promising to do “whatever it takes” to support the UK economy. Here we provide an overview of some of the Budget’s key messages and what this may mean for investors.



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Support, not stimulus or squeeze, backed by fiscal principles, not rules: this should be the focus in the Budget.



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What were you doing on the eve of the pandemic? That may be easy to recall. But what were you doing in early 2014? That may take a bit more time to work out. Why do I ask?



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An analysis of UK interest rates

What lies ahead for UK interest rates? In the wake of its recent quarterly Monetary Policy Report, the signals from the Bank of England (BOE) were far from clear. This was highlighted by the immediate media reaction ranging from talk of negative rates to a focus on higher rates. Let’s put all this in context.



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A General Overview of the Economic Picture

The start of the year has highlighted the complex interaction of factors impacting the financial market outlook, in the UK and globally. 



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At the beginning of each year The Financial Times conducts a survey among UK based economists. One of the main stories in today’s FT is about this survey, “UK economy set to become one of the last to recover from pandemic” and, online, the paper also has a link to all the replies.



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What lies ahead for the UK economy in 2021? A year ago, it was remarkable how often the forecasts for 2020 contained puns about perfect 2020 vision. We avoided them, and just as well. In the event few, if any, saw what lay ahead.  It was a year when a downside tail-risk dominated as the pandemic hit. This triggered dramatic movements in financial markets and huge proactive policy stimulus measures, particularly across the so-called advanced economies.



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