Our Views on the Markets and the Economy

Articles, investment updates and economic analysis

Key messages to consider around global growth

The world economy looks set to slow sharply this year, with technical recessions in the form of two successive negative quarters of growth likely in a host of countries, including the US, UK, and the major economies of western Europe such as Germany and France. Global growth could slow towards 3% (based on the International Monetary Fund’s measure), and while positive, growth rates on this measure of 3% are often low enough to be referred to as a global recession. This weakness will continue into 2023.

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Five things to know about China now

One of the significant focuses for financial markets in recent weeks has been developments in China. A zero-covid policy has triggered a sharp economic slowdown and also is leading to wider contagion, as supply-chains affecting global trade are impacted. This is the latest evidence of China’s growing importance to the world economy. So, let’s look at five factors in China to better understand the implications of its decisions and how they affect the investment landscape worldwide.

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Bank of England’s remit needs a fundamental rethink

The Bank of England reaches the milestone of a quarter-century of independence in early May. After some initial benefits, it is hard to claim that the experience has been an unbridled success. There are strong reasons this milestone should trigger a fundamental rethink of the Bank’s remit and governance.

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Economic update

The big picture has not fundamentally changed recently. Latest developments reinforce existing market expectations of slowing global growth, elevated inflation and tighter monetary policies in most countries.

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Beijing’s dreams of a stronger role for the yuan are coming true

The war in Ukraine is having economic reverberations around the globe. China has come under increased scrutiny.

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Analysis of the Spring Statement

Higher inflation, rising fuel duties and previously announced increases in taxation are all combining to point to a severe cost-of-living squeeze. In the face of this, the Chancellor unveiled some significant and welcome targeted measures in his Spring Statement to cushion the pain.

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Can the BOE’s actions and the Chancellor’s vision align?

This week the Bank of England raised its policy rate for the third successive meeting, increasing it from 0.5% to 0.75%. This now returns the policy rate to its pre-pandemic level. But what are the future options for the Bank – and can they align with those of the Chancellor to keep the economy on track?

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The economic and financial consequences of the Ukraine conflict

What are the economic and financial consequences of the war in Ukraine, and what may lie ahead?

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Sunak puts private sector at the heart of his growth-led agenda

Last Thursday, we were given insights into the Chancellor’s thinking when he delivered the annual Mais lecture. In a powerful speech he told us he was an optimist. He is right to be. But is he doing enough to overcome immediate challenges or to boost future trend growth so the UK economy thrives?

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Rotation, Russia and rates

What is happening in financial markets, and what lies ahead? This year, the three “Rs” have driven financial markets: rotation, Russia and rates. Let’s focus on each, beginning with the immediate issue of Russia and Ukraine.

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