Our Views on the Markets and the Economy
Articles, investment updates and economic analysis
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Following on from Netwealth's five-year milestone, and as we look ahead to the next five years, it is perhaps worth bearing in mind the words of Benjamin Franklin: that the only things that we can be certain of are death and taxes. Even in economics, demographics and fiscal matters now occupy a pivotal place a quarter of a millennium after Franklin’s words.
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What is happening to the global economy and what does it mean for financial markets? There has been a significant evolution in the focus of markets through the course of this year – so let’s take a closer look at the prospects now.
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If England win the UEFA European Football Championship European Championships on Sunday will this be good news for the economy? That is a question I have been asked today, in the wake of comments by Chancellor Rishi Sunak. What is the answer?
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Inflation is rising in the UK. Will this pass through, persist or become permanently entrenched? This is a key issue for the economy, for policy and for the financial markets.
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Soon the Chancellor will deliver his annual Mansion House speech. While his recent comments regarding financial services have been well received, his message to the City should be that London will continue to be a major global financial sector, enhanced by its common law rooted financial regulation.
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When assessing the economic and policy outlook it is always important to anticipate what lies ahead as well as being on top of current developments. It is necessary to emphasise this perhaps obvious comment at the present moment, as the economy emerges from an unprecedented situation.
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While inflation is still a concern, the underlying environment for investors now is one of relative stability. That said, as previous events have shown, and because the outcome of interconnected factors can be hard to quantify, it is never a time to be complacent.
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In recent months, we've highlighted the inevitability that inflation would rise and likely be volatile for some time. Now we are reiterating the message that we need to take this inflation risk seriously, but at the same time, we should not panic.
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Central banks in western economies need to be tightening policy by scaling back their printing of money via quantitative easing (QE). This will be the conclusion that markets are likely to come to in coming weeks, with the focus on the US and the UK.
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The immediate outlook for financial markets looks very constructive. Although we are still in a global health crisis, the vaccination programmes point to a strong economic rebound in the US and UK, following in the footsteps of the recovery that is well underway in China.
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